A hír szerint az emlytett Neptunusz-túli kisbolygót 3 éve nem
észlelték, a pálya bizonytalansága olyan nagy, hogy az esemény
elorejelzése +/- 3 órára bizonytalan és a Földet el is
kerülheti. Tehát csak a legelszántabbaknak ajánlom!

Szabó Sándor

----- Original Message -----
From: "Mike Kretlow"
To: "planoccult"
Sent: Saturday, March 19, 2005 1:57 AM
Subject: Re: [PLANOCCULT] Transneptunian and bright star Saturday
evening.


On 18.03.2005 at 18:17 jlx wrote:
>
>Unfortunately no astrometric measurement of 1999 CO153
>was reported to the MPC since the 2002 opposition, three
>years ago ! It results a very bad accuracy of Edwin´s
>prediction. The V= 23.7 magnitude prevented last minute
>astrometry with 1-meter class telescopes, and none was
>undertaken with bigger ones. So 1999 CO153 could miss
>the Earth, or maybe could cross it at any place in
>w.Russia, Europe, w.Asia, Africa, or Brasil...
>The event could happen 3 hours early or 3 hours late !
>

I calculated a recent orbit from the 15 observations available.
The actual ephemeris error (1-sig) is about 0.14s in RA and 0.68arcs in
DE!
Together with ~40au geocentric distance the uncertainty is really
extreme large...
more than the diameter of the Earth...

Good luck to all trying this occultation!
Best regards, Mike




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