Udv!

Szerintem a Kp indexet kell nezni. Lasd pl:
http://www.sel.noaa.gov/Aurora/ Sajnos ez csak 3 orankent frissul, de
legalabb egyenes aranyban all a geomagneses aktivitassal. Szerencsere
van egy elerejelzes is az aktualis ertekre:
http://www.sel.noaa.gov/rpc/costello/ es ott pl. a "Latest Output
(1-day)" link) Ez tapasztalataim szerint abszolut ertekben nem tul
pontos, de a Kp index erosodeset-gyenguleset eleg jol elorejelzi.
Jellemzo modon a nov 20-ai sarki fenykor 9-es erteket jelzett (a skala
0-9-g tart!) tovabba az oktober 28 vagy 29-en is lattak Magyarorszagrol
aurorat, es akkor is 9-es volt. Ma delutan szinten 7-es, azaz nagyon
eros az aktivitast jelzett.

Kp index:
http://www.sel.noaa.gov/rt_plots/kp_3d.html

Az n index pedig (bocs, az angolert):
Normalization factor (n)
A normalization factor of less than 2.0 indicates a reasonable level of
confidence in the estimate of power. The more the value of n exceeds
2.0, the less confidence should be placed in the estimate of hemispheric
power and the activity level.

The process to estimate the hemispheric power, and the level of auroral
activity, involves using this normalization factor which takes into
account how effective the satellite was in sampling the aurora during
its transit over the polar region. A large (> 2.0) normalization factor
indicates that the transit through the aurora was not very effective and
the resulting estimate of auroral activity has a lower confidence. In
order for users to assess the confidence in a given estimate of auroral
power, we now report the numerical value of the normalization factor in
our web pages.